COVID-19; Beyond the Biomedical Risk
By Tom Gauvreau, Senior Risk Analyst Aleas.ca
It has now been over seven months since the world has been permanently disrupted by the 2019 novel coronavirus, better known as COVID-19.
Unlike in the weeks following the onset of the pandemic, we can now draw a relatively accurate picture of the situation and its consequences on both individuals and societies that are grappling with this health dilemma.
Nonetheless,a new uncertainty emerges as we are entering the winter season: further waves of viral infections. Although the earlier concept of a second wave was not share devenly throughout the scientific community, some even minimizing its potential impact,it is being reported that global daily cases keep rising.
As the old adage goes, ‘’Misfortunes never come alone,” we can expect other risks to appear.
Economics presents a prominent factor at the core of this issue. More precisely the consequences of various national policies on their respective economies must be taken into account in order to tackle the pandemic. Studies on the global macro- economics of COVID-19, using various predictive modelling scenarios of the virus outbreak, show that even under the most optimistic scenario, economies worldwide will face hardships. This should not be underestimated.
Economic hardships can be correlated to a slew of sociopolitical problems, especially civil unrest.
Though economical difficulties are not the sole source of all societal ills, they can be linked to the present state of affairs as a common denominator at varying levels. A historical study of past pandemics shows that, more often than not, they are followed by civil instability.